non-partisan student voter organizing, psychology, criminal justice, and counterterrorism. He works as a criminal intelligence analyst for the Camden County Police Department. He is also a graduate student at Georgetown University, where he is pursuing a
Keywords:
COVID-19 modeling, Mathematics and epidemiology, Flattening the curveAbstract
In this analytical essay, Geoffrey Downing explores the mathematical modeling of COVID-19’s rapid spread through the lens of exponential functions. Using definitions and structures from both standard algebra and epidemiology, he illustrates how the reproductive number (R₀) and growth constants model infection trajectories. Downing emphasizes the critical role of two variables: exposure (E) and probability of infection (P), showing how reducing exposure through social distancing directly flattens the curve. He introduces exponential and logarithmic graphing tools to understand spikes and predict outcomes, while also addressing the limitations of pure exponential growth as infection reaches population saturation. The essay advocates for scientifically informed public health strategies and highlights the life-or-death significance of individual choices during a pandemic.
